THE WRITING
IS ON THE WALL

Over the years, science fiction writers and futurologists have tried to predict what life will be like in the future. H.G. Wells, Aldous Huxley and George Orwell have all produced novels, about future society, progress and control of the masses. Things to come by H.G. Wells is the most optimistic, predicting a Utopian society, but only after a great war followed by social collapse and plague. Things to Come by Aldous Huxley and 1984 by George Orwell are more pessimistic, in which society is controlled by surveilance, social stratification and oppression. In many societies there is no room for minorities, the handicapped and misfits. The Twentieth century saw several great social 'experiments' including Stalin's Russia and the rise of Nazism in Germany. Both were caused by the economic failures of previous governments. Today, we live in an unprecidented era of ecomonic growth. China, home to one sixth of the world's population and Mao's 'Great Leap Forward' and the Cultural Revolution is now only Communist in name, encouraging free enterprise. It's economy grew by 11% in 2006/07. Germany and Russia, home to the likes of Hitler and Stalin in the past now enjoy a standard of living such that extremist parties are now sidelined in politics. In Great Britain and America we have enjoyed over two centuries of growth, starting with the Industrial Revoloution in the late 18th century. Other countries are now playing catch-up. War has now been eliminated in Europe and much of Asia and the Americas. These days we prefer to keep up with the Joneses and make money than make war. We live in an age where our futures seem secure and safe. We look forward to the day when nation states will be abolished and humanity will live in global harmony.

Unfortunately we are still a long way off that yet. War is still being fought, especially in Iraq where the occupation is failing, mainly due to the diverse mix of people who live there who are unable to live together, whether they are Kurdish, Christian or the wrong type of Muslim. At least Saddam Hussein, a secular dictator, gave the country stability. With grubby dictators running countries live Burma, Zimbabwe and North Korea, why is it that the U.S.A. and it's allies chose to remove Saddam Hussein?

Because Saddam Hussein was sitting on some of the largest oil reserves in the world.

In 1979, America lost one of it's Middle East allies in the form of the Shah of Iran, which along with Iraq and Saudi Arabia has the largest oil reserves in the world. This caused the price of a barrel of oil to soar to $70 a barrel before falling back to $30, causing a run on fuel prices here in the west. America's support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War of 1973 lead to Arab countries placing an oil embargo on the west, causing fuel shortages. How long is it before we abandon Iraq, like America did Vietnam in 1973. Quite simply the Iraqis do not want us there and there is now talk of war with Iran over their nuclear ambitions leaving us with Saudi Arabia, whose royal family, the House of Saud is a key ally in the Middle East but what about grass-roots Saudis? What will happen if they decide to overthrow their monarchy like they did in Iran is 1979?

At the beginning of 2008 oil has reached the psychological barrier price of $100 and petrol costs more than £1.00 per litre in the U.K., a situation that can only get worse if the British pound weakens against the American Dollar. Furthermore the foreign owned utilities are adding to the pressure by raising domestic gas prices here in the U.K., causing electricity to soar in price as much of our electricity generation depends on gas. Like oil, gas is running out and the situation has got worse since the U.K. has had to start importing gas due to the depletion of North Sea reserves.

We will reach Peak Oil by 2010, A major economic collapse is 50% likely by the end of 2012 and 90% likely by 2020.

THE POLITICAL DANGERS

In September 2000, there was a fuel protest led by farmers and hauliers over the fact that we have the most expensive fuel in the E.U., this French-style action was the result of a similar protest by our cross-channel neighbours which succeeded in getting concessions from their government. There is currently talk of renewed protests by lorry-drivers and farmers. Transaction 2007 is planning such a protest and one of it's members, Andrew Spence stood as a candidate for the British National Party, a far-right group who has an extensive section on their website about Peak Oil. Of all the political parties, the B.N.P. has the most to gain from a major ecomonic collapse caused by high oil prices. After all, it was the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed it that brought Hitler to power in 1933.

The 2000 Fuel Protest nearly brought the country to a halt in less than half a week as oil was not distributed from the refineries to the forecourts. It lead to a disruption in council services, operations are cancelled as N.H.S. staff were unable to get to work, food ran low in some supermarkets a lorries were unable to deliver the goods. Those few days in September 2000 just showed how reliant we are on oil. At the moment the Exchequer takes about two-thirds of the cost of our petrol, with the other one-third going to production, transport and retail costs. This is with oil costing $100 per barrel. Adjusting the costs for inflation, oil was cost twice as much during the Iranian Crisis and that lead to a major reccession, resulting in four million people being unemployed in this country alone. But then prices came down again. Once oil passes the $200, I dare say by 2010 then the pinch will begin to be felt again and the government will be forced to cut duties to suppress the price. I will not be supprised if it reaches $300/barrel by 2015 after which no amout of duty-cutting will save the economy, especially as the government is forced to seek revenue from elsewhere or cut services. During this time the economies of China and India would have almost doubled and the world's population will pass the 7billion mark. Biofuels can solve some of the problem but with all these extra mouths to feed, should we grow crops to run our cars or for food?

What will happen will be a greater economic collapse than the Great Depression. Riots will break out on the streets of the developed world as food shortages occur. Right-wing politcal parties and religious extremists will seek scapegoats and our towns and cities will become no-go areas run by gangs who will organise themselves mainly along racial lines. Black marketeering, drug dealing, bootleg alcohol and cigarettes, pirate D.V.D.s and prostitution will become the main economy in our cities and life will be cheap.